Dividendos transmitem informação sobre lucros futuros

Resumo:

Yes. We show that dividend changes contain information about highly persistent changes in future economic income. Three methodological differences lead us to different conclusions from the extant literature: (i) we use an “event window approach” to cleanly delineate earnings after dividend changes from those before, (ii) we use alternative earnings measures to control for endogenous investment and asset write-downs surrounding dividend changes, and (iii) we control for the nonlinear relation between dividend changes and market reactions. Our results suggest dividend announcement returns reflect information about the level of permanent earnings, though the timing of the information content is difficult to reconcile with traditional signaling models.

Fonte: Charles G. Ham, Zachary R. Kaplan, Mark T. Leary, Do dividends convey information about future earnings?, Journal of Financial Economics, Volume 136, Issue 2, 2020,

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cartões de simpatia, para uma contabilidade que não deu certo

Previsão de recessões com dados do mercado

Do financial market participants, collectively, possess special wisdom about when economies are at risk of falling into a recession? When is Growth at Risk, a paper to be discussed at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity conference March 19, suggests the answer is, “Probably not.”

Financial markets and the real economy (the production of goods and services) interact. Their movements are highly correlated, and financial indicators can, of course, provide useful information about current economic conditions. They also reflect market participants’ expectations of where the real economy is headed. The question the authors examine is whether financial indicators provide extra predictive power, more so than indicators of the real economy such as surveys of corporate purchasing managers.

“People in financial markets can obtain high returns if they can predict recessions but they are not able to do it—at least not better than anyone else. They cannot anticipate the timing of recessions and they price the risk of one only once they see it,” Professor Reichlin said in an interview with Brookings. “This blindness suggests that information bearing on the economy’s near-term path is rapidly available to all, but rare events such as recessions are fundamentally unforecastable.”

Policymakers should still pay attention to financial variables, even if they offer disappointingly little power to forecast recession risk—and they should seek to limit the accumulation of financial fragilities since those fragilities likely amplify the damage to the real economy once recessions occur, she said.

The authors use econometric techniques to analyze financial data back to 1973 and its ability to predict risks to gross domestic product (the economy’s output of goods and services) in both the very short term (within a quarter) and the medium term (four quarters). They examined both the predictive power of a compilation of financial variables in the United States (the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s National Financial Conditions Index) and individual variables. They also looked at data for 12 other advanced-economy countries and found very similar patterns.

Fonte: Hasenzagl, Thomas, Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, Lucrezia Reichlin, and Giovannie Ricco. 2020. “When is growth at risk?” BPEA Conference Draft, Spring.

Assembleias digitais

Muitas empresas estavam esperando esta norma: como irá funcionar as assembleias digitais. Através da Instrução 622, a CVM indicou sobre as assembleias de acionistas inteiramente digitais. Isto está apoiado na MP 931/20 e corresponde a uma mudança diante do Covid-19.

Em muitos casos, as próprias empresas divulgavam, juntamente com a convocação ou cancelamento da Assembleia, um indicativo que estavam esperando um pronunciamento da CVM sobre os procedimentos que seriam adotados. Segundo a entidade, as principais mudanças são:

Inclusão de definição das assembleias realizadas de modo parcialmente digital.
Esclarecimento de que nas assembleias realizadas de modo parcialmente digital, a reunião poderá ocorrer fora da sede da companhia, em caráter excepcional.
Possibilidade de definição, por parte da companhia, de prazo de antecedência para que o acionista deposite os documentos mencionados no anúncio de convocação e que estes possam ser apresentados por meio de protocolo digital.
Previsão de que o sistema a ser utilizado pela companhia possibilite a comunicação entre os acionistas.
Possibilidade dos administradores e pessoas cuja presença seja obrigatória nas assembleias participarem a distância nas assembleias realizadas de modo parcial ou exclusivamente digital.
Possibilidade de o presidente da mesa e o secretário registrarem em ata a presença dos acionistas que participarem a distância.

Iasb a todo vapor

Uma das consequências positivas do Covid para contabilidade poderia ser a redução no ritmo de produção de normas. Mas parece que isto não está acontecendo. A Deloitte fez um interessante comparativo entre o planejamento do Iasb, de um mês para cá. Pouca coisa mudou. Ou seja, mais e mais normas. Eis a listagem da empresa de auditoria:

Standard-setting projects

• No changes, but see below for changes not yet reflected in the updated work plan

Maintenance projects

• Changes in accounting policies and estimates — Final amendments are now expected in the fourth quarter of 2020 (previously no date given) 
• Amendments to IFRS 17 'Insurance Contracts' — Final amendments are now expected in June 2020 (previously second half of 2020) 
• Deferred tax related to assets and liabilities arising from a single transaction — The discussion of exposure draft feedback is now expected in June 2020 (previously second quarter of 2020) 
• Disclosure initiative — Accounting policies — The last work plan stated that feedback to the exposure draft would be discussed (no date given); this has now changed to final amendments to be expected in the fourth quarter of 2020 without redeliberations having occurred yet Disclosure initiative — 
• Disclosure review — An exposure draft is now expected in the first half of 2021 (previously second half of 2020) 
• IBOR reform and its effects on financial reporting — Phase 2 — An exposure was published on 9 April 2020; discussion of the feedback received is expected to occur in the third quarter of 2020 
• IFRS 16 and COVID-19 — A project newly added to the work plan; an exposure draft is expected "by 27 April 2020"

Research projects

• Business combinations under common control — A discussion paper is now expected in the third quarter of 2020 (previously second quarter of 2020) 
• Dynamic risk management — Outreach on the core model is now expected in the second half of 2020 (previously second quarter of 2020) 
• Extractive Activities — Research findings will now be discussed in June 2020 (previously second quarter of 2020) 
• Goodwill and impairment — The feedback received on the discussion paper will be discussed in the first half of 2021 (previously second half of 2020) 
• Post-implementation Review of IFRS 10, IFRS 11 and IFRS 12 — in the last work plan, the research review was announced for April 2020; this has now been given an entry "fourth quarter of 2020" although the Board will actually discuss the feedback at the upcoming Board meeting

Other projects

• 2020 Agenda Consultation — A request for information is now expected in the first half of 2021 (previously second half of 2020)

Changes not yet reflected in the updated work plan

On 17 April 2020, the Board decided to extend the consultation period by (approximately) three months for the following consultation documents:

• the Exposure Draft General Presentation and Disclosures; 
• the Request for Information Comprehensive Review of the IFRS for SMEs Standard; 
• and the Discussion Paper Business Combinations—Disclosures, Goodwill and Impairment.

The above is a faithful comparison of the IASB work plan at 27 March 2020 and at 18 April 2020. For access to the current IASB work plan at any time, please click here.

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Economia e Coronavírus

Parabéns Contabilidade Financeira

Alguns bons amigos lembraram que hoje estamos completando aniversário. Gostaria de aproveitar e agradecer o grande incentivo e apoio da Isabel e do Pedro, sempre presentes. E daqueles que gostam daquilo que fazemos.

Que venham mais anos de vida pela frente. E muita postagem. Sobre débitos e créditos da vida real.