Seja trouxa: faça Day Trade

Resumo:

We analyze the performance of and learning by individual investors who engage in day trading in Taiwan from 1992 to 2006 and test the proposition that individual investors rationally speculate as day traders in order to learn whether they possess superior trading ability. Consistent with models of both rational and biased learning, we document that unprofitable day traders are more likely to quit than profitable traders. Inconsistent with models of rational speculation and learning, we document that the aggregate performance of day traders is negative, the vast majority of day traders are unprofitable, and many persist despite an extensive experience of losses.

“Learning, Fast or Slow,” with Y. Lee, Y. Liu, T. Odean, and K. Zhang, forthcoming, Review of Asset Pricing Studies.

Cor do papel higiênico

Qual a razão do papel higiênico ser da cor branca? Quando li esta pergunta no MentalFloss imaginei que a resposta seria devido a facilidade que a cor branca permite na determinação do término da limpeza. Isto é uma resposta plausível.

Mas a principal resposta diz respeito ao processo de produção, ao custo e as preocupações ambientais. O papel higiênico é produzido a partir da celulose; no processo, há a remoção da lignina, o que faz com que o papel fique mais macio e prolongue a vida útil do produto. Este processo faz com que o resultado final seja um produto branco. Esta seria a primeira explicação: o processo de produção.

Mas é possível produzir um papel de outra cor. Para isto, os fabricantes poderiam acrescentar corantes. Há dois problemas aqui. O primeiro, é que isto aumenta o custo de produção, o que significa preço mais elevado. O segundo problema é que os corantes podem trazer irritação na pela do cliente e provocar danos ambientais.

Custo do sequenciamento genético

Desde o início da utilização da técnica de sequenciamento de genoma, o custo caiu substancialmente. Isto ajuda a explicar, em parte, a rapidez da resposta que a ciência está dando, até agora, para o Covid.

Rir é o melhor remédio

Agora todos somos Monk

(Monk = série da TV de 2002 sobre um ex-detetive muito inteligente, mas com TOC) (Vale a pena)

Taleb, Covid-19 e o retorno de 3.600%

A tail-risk hedge fund advised by Nassim Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” returned 3,612% in March, paying off massively for clients who invested in it as protection against a plunge in stock prices.

The fund, managed by Universa Investments of Miami, had a year-to-date return of 4,144% through the end of last month, according to an investor letter from President and Chief Investment Officer Mark Spitznagel that was obtained by Bloomberg. He said Universa was able to cash in many of its positions, locking in the gains, while also keeping in place protection against more equity sell-offs, “one of the tricks of the trade.”

[..]

“Looking ahead, the world remains very much trapped in the mother of all global financial bubbles,” Spitznagel, 49, wrote. “It’s the systemic vulnerabilities created by this unprecedented central-bank-fueled bubble, and the crazy, naive risk-taking and leverage that accompanies it, that makes this pandemic so potentially destructive to the financial markets and the economy.”

Fonte: aqui

Efeito de TI na produção de informações: o sistema EDGAR

Resumo:

Modern information technologies have fundamentally changed how information is disseminated in Önancial markets. Using the staggered implementation of the EDGAR system in 1993ñ1996 as a shock to information dissemination technologies, we Önd evidence that internet dissemination of corporate information increases information production by corporate outsiders. SpeciÖcally, trades by individual investors in a stock become more informative about future stock returns after the stock becomes subject to mandatory Öling on EDGAR. This e§ect is driven primarily by investors who have access to the internet. The amount and accuracy of information produced by sell-side analysts increase following the EDGAR implementation. Market responses to analyst revisions also become stronger after a Örm becomes an EDGAR Öler. Furthermore, stock pricing e¢ ciency improves after the EDGAR implementation. Overall, these results suggest that greater and broader information dissemination facilitated by modern information technologies improves information production and stock pricing e¢ ciency.

Fonte: “Informing the Market: The Effect of Modern Information Technologies on Information Production,” with Meng Gao, 2020, Review of Financial Studies 33, 1367–1411

Estratégia de baixo custo no combate ao Covid

O Vietnam parece ser um caso de sucesso de política pública no combate ao Covid-19. Os resultados são relevantes, como mostra a linha de baixo do gráfico:

Tightened border controls, agile health departments, tech platforms, and a hand-washing song that went viral have added up to a frugal but highly effective response to the threat of COVID-19. The country's success provides a model that other developing an emerging economies should follow.

A música  Ghen Cô Vy tem 32 milhões de visualizações e chegou a aparecer no programa John Oliver


Uma versão em inglês da música está aqui