08 junho 2016
Anomalia dos accruals: uma simples explicação
Resumo:
Accruals are the non-cash component of earnings. They represent adjustments made to cash flows to generate a profit measure largely unaffected by the timing of receipts and payments of cash. Prior research uncovers two anomalies: expected returns increase in profitability and decrease in accruals. We show that cash-based operating profitability (a measure that excludes accruals) outperforms measures of profitability that include accruals. Further, cash-based operating profitability subsumes accruals in predicting the cross section of average returns. An investor can increase a strategy’s Sharpe ratio more by adding just a cash-based operating profitability factor to the investment opportunity set than by adding both an accruals factor and a profitability factor that includes accruals.
Fonte: Accruals, cash flows, and operating profitability in the cross section of stock returns.Ray Ball,Joseph Gerakos,Juhani T. Linnainmaa,Valeri Nikolaev. Journal of Financial Economics. July 2016
Accruals are the non-cash component of earnings. They represent adjustments made to cash flows to generate a profit measure largely unaffected by the timing of receipts and payments of cash. Prior research uncovers two anomalies: expected returns increase in profitability and decrease in accruals. We show that cash-based operating profitability (a measure that excludes accruals) outperforms measures of profitability that include accruals. Further, cash-based operating profitability subsumes accruals in predicting the cross section of average returns. An investor can increase a strategy’s Sharpe ratio more by adding just a cash-based operating profitability factor to the investment opportunity set than by adding both an accruals factor and a profitability factor that includes accruals.
Fonte: Accruals, cash flows, and operating profitability in the cross section of stock returns.Ray Ball,Joseph Gerakos,Juhani T. Linnainmaa,Valeri Nikolaev. Journal of Financial Economics. July 2016
Maior taxa de juros reais do mundo
O Brasil tem a maior taxa de juros reais do mundo.
[...]
Descontada a inflação para os próximos 12 meses (na projeção da Infinity), o Brasil tem o juro a 7,54%. A taxa o coloca acima de Argentina (3,7%), Rússia (2,78%), Indonésia (2,35%), China (2,3%), Polônia (1,96%), Índia (1,53%), Tailândia (1%), Filipinas (0,98%) e México (0,83%).
[...]
Descontada a inflação para os próximos 12 meses (na projeção da Infinity), o Brasil tem o juro a 7,54%. A taxa o coloca acima de Argentina (3,7%), Rússia (2,78%), Indonésia (2,35%), China (2,3%), Polônia (1,96%), Índia (1,53%), Tailândia (1%), Filipinas (0,98%) e México (0,83%).
[...]
Fonte: aqui
07 junho 2016
O que acontece quando uma mulher ganha as eleições municipais? Evidências do Brasil
No artigo abaixo, os autores mostram que prefeitas brasileiras tendem a se envolver menos em casos de corrupção em relação aos prefeitos. Além disso, as prefeitas tendem a contratar menos funcionários temporários e atraem menos recursos quando se candidatam à reeleição em relação aos candidatos do sexo masculino.
Resumo:
We analyze close elections between male and female mayoral candidates in Brazilian municipalities to provide novel evidence on the role of women as policymakers. Using an objective measure of corruption based on random government audits, we find that female mayors are less likely to engage in corruption compared to male mayors. We also find that female mayors hire fewer temporary public employees than male mayors during the electoral year and tend to attract less campaign contributions when running for reelection. Moreover, our results show that female mayors have a lower reelection probability than male mayors. We interpret our findings as suggesting that male incumbents are more likely to engage in strategic behavior and this improves their electoral performance. Other explanations receive less support from the data.
Fonte: What happens when a woman wins an election? Evidence from close races in Brazil. Fernanda Brollo,Ugo Troiano. Journal of Development Economics.September 2016
06 junho 2016
Bolhas e quebras: o papel da Mão invisível e dos agentes racionais
No artigo abaixo o autor mostra que num ambiente teórico com a combinação da mão invisível e de agentes racionais é natural a existência de bolhas e quebras no mercado. Conforme o autor, ele não está defendendo nenhum desses paradigmas da economia clássica.
Abstract
The 2000 dot-com crash and the 2008 subprime crisis have fueled the belief that the two classical paradigms of economics, the invisible hand and the rational agent, are not well appropriate to describe market dynamics and should be abandoned at the benefit of alternative new theoretical concepts. At odd with such a view, using a simple model of choice dynamics from sociophysics, the invisible hand and the rational agent paradigms are given a new legitimacy. Indeed, it is sufficient to introduce the holding of a few intermediate mini market aggregations by agents sharing their own private information, to recenter the invisible hand and the rational agent at the heart of market self regulation. An elasticity is discovered in the market efficiency mechanism due to the existence of an agent collective anticipation. This elasticity is shown to create spontaneous bubbles, which are rationally founded. At the same time, crashes occur at once when the limit of elasticity is reached. Plasticity can also be achieved through a combination of a crash with a sudden shift of the collective anticipation. Although the findings disclose a path to put an end to the bubble-crash phenomena, it is argued to be rationally not feasible. Bubbles and crashes are thus an intrinsic internal part of classical economics.
Fonte: The invisible hand and the rational agent are behind bubbles and crashes. Serge Galam. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals.July 2016
Abstract
The 2000 dot-com crash and the 2008 subprime crisis have fueled the belief that the two classical paradigms of economics, the invisible hand and the rational agent, are not well appropriate to describe market dynamics and should be abandoned at the benefit of alternative new theoretical concepts. At odd with such a view, using a simple model of choice dynamics from sociophysics, the invisible hand and the rational agent paradigms are given a new legitimacy. Indeed, it is sufficient to introduce the holding of a few intermediate mini market aggregations by agents sharing their own private information, to recenter the invisible hand and the rational agent at the heart of market self regulation. An elasticity is discovered in the market efficiency mechanism due to the existence of an agent collective anticipation. This elasticity is shown to create spontaneous bubbles, which are rationally founded. At the same time, crashes occur at once when the limit of elasticity is reached. Plasticity can also be achieved through a combination of a crash with a sudden shift of the collective anticipation. Although the findings disclose a path to put an end to the bubble-crash phenomena, it is argued to be rationally not feasible. Bubbles and crashes are thus an intrinsic internal part of classical economics.
Fonte: The invisible hand and the rational agent are behind bubbles and crashes. Serge Galam. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals.July 2016
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