Resumo:
Individual investor trading results in systematic and economically large losses. Using
a complete trading history of all investors in Taiwan, we document that the aggregate
portfolio of individuals suffers an annual performance penalty of 3.8 percentage points. Individual investor losses are equivalent to 2.2% of Taiwan’s gross domestic product or 2.8%
of the total personal income. Virtually all individual trading losses can be traced to their
aggressive orders. In contrast, institutions enjoy an annual performance boost of 1.5 percentage points, and both the aggressive and passive trades of institutions are profitable.
Foreign institutions garner nearly half of institutional profits.
Brad M. Barber, Yi-Tsung Lee, Yu-Jane Liu, Terrance Odean, Just How Much Do Individual Investors Lose by Trading?, The Review of Financial Studies, Volume 22, Issue 2, February 2009, Pages 609–632, https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhn046
12 abril 2020
O Perigo do Covid-19
Esta animação mostra a razão do Covid-19 não ser uma "gripezinha" qualquer
Os dados são dos Estados Unidos, mas podem ser replicados em qualquer outro país.
Os dados são dos Estados Unidos, mas podem ser replicados em qualquer outro país.
11 abril 2020
Leasing e Covid-19
O International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) publicou um documento respondendo a perguntas relacionadas à aplicação da IFRS 16 'Leasing' durante o período de maior incerteza econômica decorrente da pandemia do COVID-19. Em sua próxima reunião, o IASB discutirá mais o assunto e também considerará datas efetivas, períodos de consultas e datas de publicação em geral.
Link aqui. O Iasb pode discutir a postergação da data de vigência de alguns pontos. Via aqui
Link aqui. O Iasb pode discutir a postergação da data de vigência de alguns pontos. Via aqui
Negociar ações é perigoso para o seu patrimônio
Resumo:
Individual investors who hold common stocks directly pay a tremendous performance penalty for active trading. Of 66,465 households with accounts at a large discount broker during 1991 to 1996, those that trade most earn an annual return of 11.4 percent, while the market returns 17.9 percent. The average household earns an annual return of 16.4 percent, tilts its common stock investment toward high-beta, small, value stocks, and turns over 75 percent of its portfolio annually. Overconfidence can explain high trading levels and the resulting poor performance of individual investors. Our central message is that trading is hazardous to your wealth.
“Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," with T. Odean, Journal of Finance, vol.55, no.2, pp.773-806, April 2000.
Individual investors who hold common stocks directly pay a tremendous performance penalty for active trading. Of 66,465 households with accounts at a large discount broker during 1991 to 1996, those that trade most earn an annual return of 11.4 percent, while the market returns 17.9 percent. The average household earns an annual return of 16.4 percent, tilts its common stock investment toward high-beta, small, value stocks, and turns over 75 percent of its portfolio annually. Overconfidence can explain high trading levels and the resulting poor performance of individual investors. Our central message is that trading is hazardous to your wealth.
“Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," with T. Odean, Journal of Finance, vol.55, no.2, pp.773-806, April 2000.
Barça e superfaturamento
Agora, seis diretores renunciaram. E pediram que o presidente saía do cargo. O motivo é desvio de dinheiro. A empresa PwC foi contratada para fazer uma auditoria:
Os seis demissionários pediram por uma investigação sobre o caso, que foi chamado de Barçagate. Uma auditoria chegou a ser feita pela Price Waterhouse Cooper e os demissionários exigem que o trabalho seja concluído e divulgado. Esperam que a empresa conclua quem errou e que o dinheiro seja devolvido aos cofres do clube.
O ex-vice-presidente do clube sugeriu que o próprio contrato com a empresa de mídia estava superfaturado.
O antigo presidente do clube, Sandro Rosell, chegou a ficar preso quase dois anos.
Nudismo em tempos de Covid-19
Com o crescimento do número de pessoas infectadas, as autoridades tchecas passaram a exigir que as pessoas usassem máscaras de proteção. Mesmo aqueles adeptos do nudismo estão sujeitos a regra e podem ser punidos se não estiverem com a boca protegida. Nudismo ainda pode ser praticado, mas com máscara de proteção.
10 abril 2020
Imprimir dinheiro não é solução para o Brasil
Neste momento de crise, muitos, no Brasil, têm defendido que o Banco Central expanda a quantidade de moeda para enfrentar os problemas. Essa...
Leia mais em https://braziljournal.com/nao-podemos-transformar-esta-crise-numa-longa-depressao
Leia mais em https://braziljournal.com/nao-podemos-transformar-esta-crise-numa-longa-depressao
Covid-19 e o monopólio da Amazon
The home confinement forced on most Americans by Covid-19 has created a new dependency on internet-based services for work and for play. Although using a variety of applications gives many users the sense that they are supporting many different companies, this is a façade.
This new normal represents a near-total dependence on Amazon’s cloud-computing operation, Amazon Web Services (AWS), and places a substantial portion of our professional and social lives in the hands of a private monopolist.
The internet-based services enabling remote work and play have experienced unprecedented growth because of Covid-19 restrictions. Netflix’s new subscriber growth increased by 47 percent over the past month. The communications platform Slack added 2.5 million additional users in just one week, and the videoconferencing software Zoom was downloaded by more than 600,000 new users in one day last week and has recorded a 21 percent increase in users since December.
But these three booming applications—and many others like them—all depend on the cloud computing power of AWS. In essence, AWS lets any company outsource its computational and storage needs, to save it the expense of buying its own equipment.
And the coronavirus outbreak has made AWS more indispensable than ever. Zoom, Slack, Netflix, Reddit, and Twitter all depend on AWS for their operations. Furthermore, General Electric, Apple, and Yelp also significantly depend on AWS, paying Amazon what are essentially digital rents for the use of the AWS computer infrastructure. Apple alone pays Amazon $30 million per month for AWS. Even government agencies rely on and utilize AWS for critical aspects of their services.
The success of AWS has made the division Amazon’s most profitable operation. The most critical sector in the cloud computing market is the Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) sector, which supplies clients with computer servers, data storage, and networking hardware.
This new normal represents a near-total dependence on Amazon’s cloud-computing operation, Amazon Web Services (AWS), and places a substantial portion of our professional and social lives in the hands of a private monopolist.
The internet-based services enabling remote work and play have experienced unprecedented growth because of Covid-19 restrictions. Netflix’s new subscriber growth increased by 47 percent over the past month. The communications platform Slack added 2.5 million additional users in just one week, and the videoconferencing software Zoom was downloaded by more than 600,000 new users in one day last week and has recorded a 21 percent increase in users since December.
But these three booming applications—and many others like them—all depend on the cloud computing power of AWS. In essence, AWS lets any company outsource its computational and storage needs, to save it the expense of buying its own equipment.
And the coronavirus outbreak has made AWS more indispensable than ever. Zoom, Slack, Netflix, Reddit, and Twitter all depend on AWS for their operations. Furthermore, General Electric, Apple, and Yelp also significantly depend on AWS, paying Amazon what are essentially digital rents for the use of the AWS computer infrastructure. Apple alone pays Amazon $30 million per month for AWS. Even government agencies rely on and utilize AWS for critical aspects of their services.
AWS is the dominant market leader in the industry, with a 48 percent market share in the IaaS sector, more than triple that of its closest competitor, Microsoft.
Amazon has used its dominant market share in various anti-competitive ways that choke competition. Amazon’s computer infrastructure provides it the ability to essentially spy on its competition.
Amazon has used its dominant market share in various anti-competitive ways that choke competition. Amazon’s computer infrastructure provides it the ability to essentially spy on its competition.
[..]
Seja trouxa: faça Day Trade
Resumo:
We analyze the performance of and learning by individual investors who engage in day trading in Taiwan from 1992 to 2006 and test the proposition that individual investors rationally speculate as day traders in order to learn whether they possess superior trading ability. Consistent with models of both rational and biased learning, we document that unprofitable day traders are more likely to quit than profitable traders. Inconsistent with models of rational speculation and learning, we document that the aggregate performance of day traders is negative, the vast majority of day traders are unprofitable, and many persist despite an extensive experience of losses.
“Learning, Fast or Slow,” with Y. Lee, Y. Liu, T. Odean, and K. Zhang, forthcoming, Review of Asset Pricing Studies.
We analyze the performance of and learning by individual investors who engage in day trading in Taiwan from 1992 to 2006 and test the proposition that individual investors rationally speculate as day traders in order to learn whether they possess superior trading ability. Consistent with models of both rational and biased learning, we document that unprofitable day traders are more likely to quit than profitable traders. Inconsistent with models of rational speculation and learning, we document that the aggregate performance of day traders is negative, the vast majority of day traders are unprofitable, and many persist despite an extensive experience of losses.
“Learning, Fast or Slow,” with Y. Lee, Y. Liu, T. Odean, and K. Zhang, forthcoming, Review of Asset Pricing Studies.
Cor do papel higiênico
Qual a razão do papel higiênico ser da cor branca? Quando li esta pergunta no MentalFloss imaginei que a resposta seria devido a facilidade que a cor branca permite na determinação do término da limpeza. Isto é uma resposta plausível. Mas a principal resposta diz respeito ao processo de produção, ao custo e as preocupações ambientais. O papel higiênico é produzido a partir da celulose; no processo, há a remoção da lignina, o que faz com que o papel fique mais macio e prolongue a vida útil do produto. Este processo faz com que o resultado final seja um produto branco. Esta seria a primeira explicação: o processo de produção.
Mas é possível produzir um papel de outra cor. Para isto, os fabricantes poderiam acrescentar corantes. Há dois problemas aqui. O primeiro, é que isto aumenta o custo de produção, o que significa preço mais elevado. O segundo problema é que os corantes podem trazer irritação na pela do cliente e provocar danos ambientais.
Custo do sequenciamento genético
Rir é o melhor remédio
(Monk = série da TV de 2002 sobre um ex-detetive muito inteligente, mas com TOC) (Vale a pena)
09 abril 2020
Taleb, Covid-19 e o retorno de 3.600%
A tail-risk hedge fund advised by Nassim Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” returned 3,612% in March, paying off massively for clients who invested in it as protection against a plunge in stock prices.
The fund, managed by Universa Investments of Miami, had a year-to-date return of 4,144% through the end of last month, according to an investor letter from President and Chief Investment Officer Mark Spitznagel that was obtained by Bloomberg. He said Universa was able to cash in many of its positions, locking in the gains, while also keeping in place protection against more equity sell-offs, “one of the tricks of the trade.”
“Looking ahead, the world remains very much trapped in the mother of all global financial bubbles,” Spitznagel, 49, wrote. “It’s the systemic vulnerabilities created by this unprecedented central-bank-fueled bubble, and the crazy, naive risk-taking and leverage that accompanies it, that makes this pandemic so potentially destructive to the financial markets and the economy.”
Fonte: aqui
The fund, managed by Universa Investments of Miami, had a year-to-date return of 4,144% through the end of last month, according to an investor letter from President and Chief Investment Officer Mark Spitznagel that was obtained by Bloomberg. He said Universa was able to cash in many of its positions, locking in the gains, while also keeping in place protection against more equity sell-offs, “one of the tricks of the trade.”
[..]
Fonte: aqui
Efeito de TI na produção de informações: o sistema EDGAR
Resumo:
Modern information technologies have fundamentally changed how information is disseminated in Önancial markets. Using the staggered implementation of the EDGAR system in 1993ñ1996 as a shock to information dissemination technologies, we Önd evidence that internet dissemination of corporate information increases information production by corporate outsiders. SpeciÖcally, trades by individual investors in a stock become more informative about future stock returns after the stock becomes subject to mandatory Öling on EDGAR. This e§ect is driven primarily by investors who have access to the internet. The amount and accuracy of information produced by sell-side analysts increase following the EDGAR implementation. Market responses to analyst revisions also become stronger after a Örm becomes an EDGAR Öler. Furthermore, stock pricing e¢ ciency improves after the EDGAR implementation. Overall, these results suggest that greater and broader information dissemination facilitated by modern information technologies improves information production and stock pricing e¢ ciency.
Fonte: “Informing the Market: The Effect of Modern Information Technologies on Information Production,” with Meng Gao, 2020, Review of Financial Studies 33, 1367–1411
Modern information technologies have fundamentally changed how information is disseminated in Önancial markets. Using the staggered implementation of the EDGAR system in 1993ñ1996 as a shock to information dissemination technologies, we Önd evidence that internet dissemination of corporate information increases information production by corporate outsiders. SpeciÖcally, trades by individual investors in a stock become more informative about future stock returns after the stock becomes subject to mandatory Öling on EDGAR. This e§ect is driven primarily by investors who have access to the internet. The amount and accuracy of information produced by sell-side analysts increase following the EDGAR implementation. Market responses to analyst revisions also become stronger after a Örm becomes an EDGAR Öler. Furthermore, stock pricing e¢ ciency improves after the EDGAR implementation. Overall, these results suggest that greater and broader information dissemination facilitated by modern information technologies improves information production and stock pricing e¢ ciency.
Fonte: “Informing the Market: The Effect of Modern Information Technologies on Information Production,” with Meng Gao, 2020, Review of Financial Studies 33, 1367–1411
Estratégia de baixo custo no combate ao Covid
O Vietnam parece ser um caso de sucesso de política pública no combate ao Covid-19. Os resultados são relevantes, como mostra a linha de baixo do gráfico:
Tightened border controls, agile health departments, tech platforms, and a hand-washing song that went viral have added up to a frugal but highly effective response to the threat of COVID-19. The country's success provides a model that other developing an emerging economies should follow.
A música Ghen Cô Vy tem 32 milhões de visualizações e chegou a aparecer no programa John Oliver
Uma versão em inglês da música está aqui
Tightened border controls, agile health departments, tech platforms, and a hand-washing song that went viral have added up to a frugal but highly effective response to the threat of COVID-19. The country's success provides a model that other developing an emerging economies should follow.
A música Ghen Cô Vy tem 32 milhões de visualizações e chegou a aparecer no programa John Oliver
Uma versão em inglês da música está aqui
Uso da internet e o Covid
No The Conversation um longo artigo (com muitos links) sobre a pornografia e o momento atual.Aqui um texto sobre o Google Trends e o Covid
Rir é o melhor remédio
Uma coleção de imagens, colocando o ator/personagem nos dias 1o. de março versus 1o. de abril. Ou seja, antes e depois do Covid-19. Eis uma amostra:
Mais aqui
08 abril 2020
Clóvis Padoveze
Com grande pesar, comunicamos o falecimento do Prof. Clóvis Luís Padovese, professor do Programa de Pós-Graduação Stricto Sensu em Administração da Unimep. O enterro ocorrerá hoje (08/04/2020) às 15:30 no cemitério Campo da Ressurreição, em Santa Bárbara D´Oeste.
O falecimento decorreu de uma tragédia doméstica. Ele tinha um dos livros de custos mais usados no Brasil.
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