11 abril 2021

Fim do crescimento econômico? Consequências do declínio populacional


In many models, economic growth is driven by people discovering new ideas. These models typically assume either a constant or growing population. However, in high income countries today, fertility is already below its replacement rate: women are having fewer than two children on average. It is a distinct possibility — highlighted in the recent book, Empty Planet — that global population will decline rather than stabilize in the long run. In standard models, this turns out to have profound implications: rather than continued exponential growth, living standards stagnate for a population that vanishes

Fonte: The End of Economic Growth? UnintendedConsequences of a Declining PopulationCharles I. Jones*Stanford GSB and NBER

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