29 setembro 2015

Metas de Inflação não ancoram as expectativas das firmas


We study the (lack of) anchoring of inflation expectations in New Zealand using a new survey of firms. Managers of these firms display little anchoring of inflation expectations, despite twenty-five years of inflation targeting by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, a fact which we document along a number of dimensions. Managers are unaware of the identities of central bankers as well as central banks’ objectives, and are generally poorly informed about recent inflation dynamics. Their forecasts of future inflation reflect high levels of uncertainty and are extremely dispersed as well as volatile at both short and long-run horizons. Similar results can be found in the U.S. using currently available surveys.

Fonte:Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand- Saten Kumar of Auckland University of Technology; Hassan Afrouzi and Olivier Coibion of University of Texas at Austin; and Yuriy Gorodnichenko of University of California at Berkeley.

“Indeed, expectations matter so much that a central bank may be able to help make policy more effective by working to shape those expectations. … the effects of monetary policy on the economy today depend importantly not only on current policy actions, but also on the public's expectations of how policy will evolve.” Ben Bernanke

Trecho do paper:

After twenty-five years of largely successful inflation targeting in New Zealand, the inflation expectations of households and firms there do not appear particularly well anchored.

Managers of firms there disagree dramatically about recent and future inflation levels, even at long horizons, and many are poorly informed about the RBNZ's inflation target.

Most managers appear to rely to a large extent on their personal shopping experience to make inferences about aggregate inflation, and are particularly sensitive to gasoline prices, much as is the case with households in the U.S. Indeed, along most metrics, the expectations of managers are much more similar to those of households than those of professional forecasters.

Since neither group appears to be well-informed about monetary policy overall, this suggests that central banks' communications strategy changes of the last twenty years have not had the desired effects on this segment of the population, even if they may have been more effective with professionals or financial market participants.

As pessoas nos EUA pesquisam no Google mais sobre cachorros do que variáveis macroeconômicas.

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