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Entrevista com Alvin Roth

(Houghton Mifflin Harcourt)

Stanford University’s Alvin Roth is a very rare thing: An economist who saves lives.

The co-recipient of the 2012 economics Nobel got his prize, in part, for helping to fix a long-standing problem with the market for kidney donations. Often family and friends were willing donors for someone who needed a kidney. But for medical reasons they weren’t a compatible match.

Building on previous work in which he had reshaped the National Resident Matching Program, which matches medical-school graduates with hospital internships, Roth devised an algorithm that would help match willing kidney donors to compatible recipients with whom they had no other connection.

That system became the cornerstone of one of the country’s first kidney exchange clearinghouses. Roth estimates his work has resulted in roughly 4,000 kidney transplants that might never had happened if not for the system he worked to build.

The market for donated kidneys is an example of what economists call a “matching market.” These markets govern everything from corporate hiring decisions to how we meet spouses, but they obey laws more complex than the simple balancing of supply and demand with prices.

While Roth’s early research focused on somewhat abstract areas of economics including game theory, over time he has transformed himself into something of a matching market guru. Roth swung by Quartz’s New York offices recently to chat about his new book, Who Gets What—and Why, which explains how matching markets work, why almost everyone makes it illegal to buy kidneys, and why it’s increasingly rare for people to marry their high-school sweethearts. Here are edited excerpts of our conversation.

Quartz: One of the ways we usually think about markets is in terms of the market for, say, crude oil or Apple stock. But you deal with “matching markets.” Can you briefly explain what those are?

Alvin Roth: Once you start looking at marketplaces one of the things you notice is that not all marketplaces are set up so that their job is merely to find a price at which supply equals demand. Those are the commodity markets. But lots of markets, even when they have prices as very important parts of the market, don’t set the price so that supply equals demand.

Labor markets don’t do that. Quartz doesn’t hire people by lowering the wage until [only] just enough people want to come work here. Instead, presumably you get to interview bunches of people who would like to work here and you get to hire some of them. But you have to compete.

The name of the book is Who Gets What—and Why. After reading it, I thought you could have added “and When” to the title. There’s this timing component of markets that’s really fascinating. You spend a lot of time on it.

Lots of markets clear very early—before lots of information is available. Book publishing is a good example. Publishers buy books before the books are written and they don’t really know what they’re getting.

If you’re graduating from law school, you get hired long before you graduate. Before firms really know what they’re getting. Before you might know what kind of law you really want to do.

Doctors used to be hired two years before graduation and that’s eventually one of the things that eventually led to the centralized clearinghouse for doctors [in the US], the National Resident Matching Program.

[...]

 

You started in a sort-of arcane area of economics, game theory. But it seems that early on you also start looking for opportunities to put these ideas into practice. You seem really interested in finding ways to help people. And I’m wondering if you think that should be the goal of economics? And, if so, what are the value of abstract models?

 Abstract models are very, very useful for organizing your thoughts and learning some things that you can’t learn without them. So I wouldn’t want to say that the goal of economics should be building concrete [things] in the world. But that should certainly be one of the goals.

Think about biology, broadly, with medicine as one part. Not all biologists should be doctors. But it is important to have doctors too.

And it’s important to have medicine that learns from biology. And you want biology and medicine to work together so that abstract, abstruse concerns with things like genes and DNA and proteins should eventually be translated into medical care and better health.

 

Continua aqui

 

O mito da educacao e o crescimento economico

[...]

Education’s importance is incontrovertible – teaching is my day job, so I certainly hope it is of some value. But whether it constitutes a strategy for economic growth is another matter. What most people mean by better education is more schooling; and, by higher-quality education, they mean the effective acquisition of skills (as revealed, say, by the test scores in the OECD’s standardized PISA exam). But does that really drive economic growth? 

In fact, the push for better education is an experiment that has already been carried out globally. And, as my Harvard colleague Lant Pritchett has pointed out, the long-term payoff has been surprisingly disappointing.

In the 50 years from 1960 to 2010, the global labor force’s average time in school essentially tripled, from 2.8 years to 8.3 years. This means that the average worker in a median country went from less than half a primary education to more than half a high school education. 

How much richer should these countries have expected to become? In 1965, France had a labor force that averaged less than five years of schooling and a per capita income of $14,000 (at 2005 prices). In 2010, countries with a similar level of education had a per capita income of less than $1,000. 

In 1960, countries with an education level of 8.3 years of schooling were 5.5 times richer than those with 2.8 year of schooling. By contrast, countries that had increased their education from 2.8 years of schooling in 1960 to 8.3 years of schooling in 2010 were only 167% richer. Moreover, much of this increase cannot possibly be attributed to education, as workers in 2010 had the advantage of technologies that were 50 years more advanced than those in 1960. Clearly, something other than education is needed to generate prosperity.

[...]

And there is more bad news for the “education, education, education” crowd: Most of the skills that a labor force possesses were acquired on the job. What a society knows how to do is known mainly in its firms, not in its schools. At most modern firms, fewer than 15% of the positions are open for entry-level workers, meaning that employers demand something that the education system cannot – and is not expected – to provide. 

When presented with these facts, education enthusiasts often argue that education is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for growth. But in that case, investment in education is unlikely to deliver much if the other conditions are missing. After all, though the typical country with ten years of schooling had a per capita income of $30,000 in 2010, per capita income in Albania, Armenia, and Sri Lanka, which have achieved that level of schooling, was less than $5,000. Whatever is preventing these countries from becoming richer, it is not lack of education.

A country’s income is the sum of the output produced by each worker. To increase income, we need to increase worker productivity. Evidently, “something in the water,” other than education, makes people much more productive in some places than in others. A successful growth strategy needs to figure out what this is.

Make no mistake: education presumably does raise productivity. But to say that education is your growth strategy means that you are giving up on everyone who has already gone through the school system – most people over 18, and almost all over 25. It is a strategy that ignores the potential that is in 100% of today’s labor force, 98% of next year’s, and a huge number of people who will be around for the next half-century. An education-only strategy is bound to make all of them regret having been born too soon.

Autor:

Ricardo Hausmann is Director of Harvard's Center for International Development and Professor of the Practice of Economic Development at the Kennedy School of Government. His research interests include issues of growth, macroeconomic stability, international finance, and the social dimensions of development. He holds a PhD in economics from Cornell University.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/education-economic-growth-by-ricardo-hausmann-2015-05#q6cc6rzUoKt6CYFB.99

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Comendo pipoca na casa de um amigo... comendo pipoca em casa, sozinho, assistindo a um filme.

Curso de Contabilidade Básica Excesso de Caixa

Uma das preocupações da administração de uma empresa é determinar quanto deve manter de dinheiro em caixa. Isto não é uma tarefa fácil, já que não existem regras que possam ser aplicadas a todos os tipos de empresas.

Nos últimos anos os analistas notaram que as empresas estão deixando cada vez mais dinheiro em caixa. Os dados que iremos apresentar a seguir são de empresas dos Estados Unidos, mas os valores parecem ser válidos para outros países, incluindo o Brasil. Em 2006 as empresas daquele país detinham um caixa que correspondia a menos de 8% do ativo. Em 2014, oito anos depois, este percentual ultrapassou a 10%. Parece pouco, mas em termos de valores isto é igual a mais de 1,8 trilhões de dólar para as empresas não financeiras. Metade deste valor está em 25 empresas, sendo que a Apple tinha 178 milhões em Caixa.

Outro aspecto interessante é que uma grande parte deste dinheiro está no exterior. Veja o gráfico a seguir. Na Apple 89% do dinheiro está no estrangeiro e na Amgen este percentual é de 95%.

Qual a razão para isto? A resposta está na tributação. Se este dinheiro for transferido para os Estados Unidos, as empresas pagarão 35% de imposto. Em razão disto, algumas empresas estão tomando empréstimo para pagar dividendos, já que boa parte dos seus recursos não está na sede.

Curso de Contabilidade Básica - Editora Atlas - César Augusto Tibúrcio Silva e Fernanda Fernandes Rodrigues (prelo)

O efeito Gordon Gekko: consequencias da cultura na industria financeira

The Gordon Gekko Effect: The Role of Culture in the Financial Industry
Andrew W. Lo
NBER Working Paper No. 21267
June 2015
JEL No. G01,G28,G3,M14,Z1

ABSTRACT

Culture is a potent force in shaping individual and group behavior, yet it has received scant attention in the context of financial risk management and the recent financial crisis. I present a brief overview of the role of culture according to psychologists, sociologists, and economists, and then present a specific
framework for analyzing culture in the context of financial practices and institutions in which three questions are answered: (1) What is culture?; (2) Does it matter?; and (3) Can it be changed? I illustrate the utility of this framework by applying it to five concrete situations—Long Term Capital Management; AIG Financial Products; Lehman Brothers and Repo 105; Société Générale’s rogue trader; and the
SEC and the Madoff Ponzi scheme—and conclude with a proposal to change culture via “behavioralrisk management.

 

Seguro de demonstrações financeiras

The fact that auditors are paid by the companies they audit creates an inherent conflict of interest. We analyze how the provision of financial statements insurance could eliminate this conflict of interest and properly align the incentives of auditors with those of shareholders. We first show that when the benefits to obtaining funding are sufficiently large, the existing legal and regulatory regime governing financial reporting (and auditing) results in low quality financial statements. Consequently, the financial statements of firms are misleading and firms that yield a low rate-of-return (low fundamental value) are over-funded relative to firms characterized by a high rate-of-return (high fundamental value). We present a mechanism whereby companies would purchase financial statements insurance that provides coverage to investors against losses suffered as a result of misrepresentation in financial reports. The insurance premia that companies pay for the coverage would be publicized. The insurers appoint and pay the auditors who attest to the accuracy of the financial statements of the prospective insurance clients. For a given level of coverage firms announcing lower premia would distinguish themselves in the eyes of the investors as companies with higher quality financial statements relative to those with higher premia. Every company would be eager to pay lower premia (for a given level of coverage) resulting in a flight to high audit quality. As a result, when financial statements insurance is available and the insurer hires the auditor, capital is provided to the most efficient firms.

Fonte: Dontoh, A., Ronen, J. and Sarath, B. (2013), Financial Statements Insurance. Abacus, 49: 269–307. doi: 10.1111/abac.12012

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Coursera: Aulas em Português

Fonte da Imagem: Aqui

A querida Joyce Boreli nos deu uma ótima dica (fonte aqui):


"[...] dois dos cursos são na área contábil! Mas os 5 em português oferecido podem ser aproveitados pelo contador ou pesquisador da área!"

As duas universidades mais conceituadas do Brasil, USP eUnicamp, ministram aulas em português inéditas na plataforma de ensino online Coursera. Para quem ainda não conhece, o serviço conta com 12 milhões de usuários no mundo e oferece gratuitamente mais de mil cursos de instituições renomadas como Yale, Stanford, Princeton, Universidade de Londres, Universidade de Michigan, entre outras.

No momento, cinco cursos estão disponíveis em português nos próximos meses, nas áreas da engenharia, contabilidade e ensino. Outros dois, mais populares, estão disponíveis com tradução de todo o conteúdo para o português, das videoaulas ao material suplementar, criando uma experiência de aprendizado ampla. Confira abaixo:

1. Processamento Digital de Sinais – Amostragem, Unicamp (início em 5 de maio)
2. O Empreendedorismo e as Competências do Empreendedor, Unicamp (início em 27 de julho)
3. História da Contabilidade, USP (início em 19 de maio)
4. Fundamentos e Linguagem de Negócios: Contabilidade (The Blue Side Up), USP (início em 27 de agosto)
5. Gestão para Aprendizagem: Módulo de Gestão Estratégica, Fundação Lemann (início a partir de 15 de maio)
6. Aprendendo a Aprender: Ferramentas Mentais Poderosas para Ajudá-lo a Dominar Assuntos Difíceis, Universidade da Califórnia, San Diego (início a qualquer momento)
7. Negociações de Sucesso: Estratégias e Habilidades Essenciais, Universidade de Michigan (início a qualquer momento)

Vale reforçar que todos os cursos são gratuitos e os alunos têm a oportunidade de obter certificados (Verified Certificate) mediante o pagamento de uma taxa de US$ 85 ou cerca de R$ 300.

Consequências da tradução de termos contábeis

This paper explores the implications of language translation in accounting. It draws on research on translation in other disciplines, and on insights from applied linguistics. It examines practical problems and solutions explored in other disciplines that we deem relevant to accounting. The paper also examines the ideological, cultural, legal, and political consequences of translation. We find that the ambiguity inherent in translation is, on the one hand, relevant for the translation of accounting principles and can contribute to accounting convergence. We show, on the other hand, that it has the potential to be exploited in ideologically or pragmatically motivated distortions in the implementation of accounting regulation. We further argue that the importance of translation in accounting is underestimated or disregarded, inter alia because it has limited effect on the culturally and economically most dominant stakeholders. We finally examine the implications of translation problems for less powerful stakeholders and smaller language communities.

Fonte: Evans, L., Baskerville, R. and Nara, K. (2015), Colliding Worlds: Issues Relating to Language Translation in Accounting and Some Lessons from Other Disciplines. Abacus, 51: 1–36. doi: 10.1111/abac.12040

Resenha: Bolsa Blindada

Bolsa Blindada é um livro da jornalista e publicitária Patricia Lages, voltado para mulheres que desejam aprender a lidar com as dívidas. Segundo a editora, é um "manual de finanças pessoais", que desmistifica o "economês"... e "até ensina a investir".

Eu vi um membro da minha família com esse livro e confesso tê-lo surrupiado especialmente para resenhá-lo. E ainda bem que eu não gastei dinheiro com isso. Vou colocar a parte final no início:

Vale a pena: Não. Não consegui terminar de ler (e nem quem me emprestou): e olha que eu sou teimosa. Mesmo não gostando, faço um esforço sobre-humano para finalizar obras. Mas essa realmente não deu.

Lembram em uma postagem anterior em que o professor César falou de livros de finanças que mais se assemelham aos de autoajuda? Bolsa blindada é um bom exemplo.

Além de não ter concordado com o que deveria ser visto como ensinamentos característicos das finanças pessoais, o achei superficial e até o layout atrapalhou. Isso sem contar que ele é cheio de estereótipos do que acreditam ser o que mulheres precisam ouvir.  Julguemos o livro pela capa, que é rosa. Em certo ponto ela fala que tem um cofrinho de moedas em casa! Agora vale a pena guardar dinheiro em cofrinho?

Eu amo fonte gigante, pois tenho uma vista péssima. Sempre que possível compro a versão “letras grandes” (large print) que os americanos, vez ou outra, publicam. Todavia, apesar do livro de Lages ter uma fonte maior que a usual, isso me deixou ainda mais inquieta e com a sensação de estar lendo algo vazio e batido. O tipo de livro em que você passa por diversas páginas sem sentir que aprendeu algo... E acredito que, talvez para tentar se diferenciar de outros livros, ela acrescenta um bocado de informações pessoais que na verdade não são interessantes, mas cansativas, tais como a forma com que ela lidava com dinheiro desde pequena e o fato de ler tudo, até “papel de bala”. Não consegui simpatizar com a "protagonista". Muito disso (dos exemplos pessoais com efeito contrário ao desejado) me incomodava e me dava péssimos flashbacks do livro da Ana Paula Padrão que terminei de ler sofrendo. (Já ensaiei várias resenhas e não as terminei porque foi o pior livro que li no ano passado, contudo encontrei aqui uma fabulosa).

A obra é simplista (que eles chamam de "linguagem acessível"), 'autoajudista' ("atitudes positivas para sair do negativo") e caso isso fosse pouco para fisgar o público, ela também fala um pouco sobre religião, como ela se apegou a Deus em momentos desesperadores e cheios de dívida.

Vale a pena: Não. A não ser que você goste de se sujeitar a livros chatos ou esteja tão desesperado com as suas dívidas e com tempo disponível que queira ler toda e qualquer obra que te prometa a liberdade financeira. Mas ache uma boa biblioteca senão você coloca tudo a perder.

LAGES, Patrícia. Bolsa Blindada. Rio de Janeiro: Thomas-Nelson, 2013

Se decidir comprar o livro, sugerimos escolher um dos parceiros do blog:

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