14 março 2019

Estudo de evento de lucros contábeis: uma medida robusta


Event studies of market efficiency measure earnings surprises using the consensus error (CE), given as actual earnings minus the average professional forecast. If a subset of forecasts can be biased, the ideal but difficult to estimate parameter‐dependent alternative to CE is a nonlinear filter of individual errors that adjusts for bias. We show that CE is a poor parameter‐free approximation of this ideal measure. The fraction of misses on the same side (FOM), which discards the magnitude of misses, offers a far better approximation. FOM performs particularly well against CE in predicting the returns of U.S. stocks, where bias is potentially large.

Chiang, Chin-Han and Dai, Wei and Fan, Jianqing and Hong, Harrison G. and Tu, Jun, Robust Measures of Earnings Surprises (May 3, 2016). Journal of Finance, Forthcoming. 

Resultado de imagem para event studies

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