17 maio 2012

Futuro do Euro

Algumas considerações do professor de economia Miguel Leon Ledesma sobre a crise da dívida soberana na Europa:

Do you think the euro is a viable project? Will it survive?

The Euro is not viable in its current form and it will only survive if politicians design a credible strategy for its survival in the very short run. The fiscal compact as a survival strategy, with its reminiscence of the old stability pact rules, is almost ludicrous. It is not credible, and that is already a reality. If the stability pact was violated by the key players for years without any consequences and during less difficult times, does anyone believe that the pact is achievable or even beneficial to some member states during the deepest and longest recession for 70 years? Obviously not. The euro cannot survive unless there is a move towards more fiscal union pertaining debt and fiscal transfers. The union can be limited, there is no need for a grand transfer scheme and there are imaginative proposals out there about designing an efficient system for backing weaker states’ new sovereign debt issues. There is also a need for a true banking union with common regulatory rules. But the short run is much shorter than many like to believe. The state of denial cannot continue. Whether the euro can survive, thus, is a question that will be answered in the next few months.

Nenhum comentário:

Postar um comentário